October 4, 2024

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National Bank of Ethiopia inflation

National Bank of Ethiopia Reports Over 30% Decline in Inflation

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National Bank of Ethiopia NBE today reported a comparative decline in inflation. According to a statement posted by the bank, overall inflation, food inflation and non food inflation fell in April 2024.

Since February this year, decrease in inflation has been recorded. The annual inflation rate decreased slightly to 28.2% in February 2024, down from a seven-month low of 29.4% in the prior month. Prices decelerated a bit for both food (31.6% vs 32.2% in January) and non-food products (23.5% vs 25.3%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1% in February, after a 1.8% increase in the previous month.

In March for the second straight month inflation rate fell to hit 26.2%, the lowest since June 2021, easing from 28.2% in the prior month. Prices slowed down a bit for both food (29% vs 31.6% in February) and non-food products (22% vs 23.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices jumped by 4% in March, the most in a year, after a 1% increase in the prior month.

According to the statistics posted by the National Bank of Ethiopia today, inflation rate fell to 23.3% in April 2024 (year-on-year basis), compared to a recent peak of 37.3% in May 2022 and an inflation rate of 33.5% this time last year. Food inflation in April 2024 fell only slightly to 27%. Non food inflation is significantly lower at 18% or less than half its rate of 36.1% this time last year.

The NBE says “compared to a year ago, overall inflation is now down by 10 percentage points (from 33.5% to 23.3%) which is over 30% decrease. While non food inflation– which is more closely linked to NBE’s monetary policy measures– down by 18 percentage points (from 36.1% to 18%)”.

This is the lowest overall inflation rate in the last 3 years or so while non food inflation fell below 20% for the first time in 3 years. NBE hopes that year-on-year inflation in June 2024 will be close to 20%.

It would be interesting to note that despite a decrease in overall inflation, Ethiopian currency birr is still trading at around 117 per dollar while its official exchange rate is around 57 per dollar.

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